Decision Analytics
Learning Outcomes
Learning Outcome
This module aims to sharpen students’ analytical minds, and to develop skills for decision making such as might be useful in management consulting. Students will appreciate the general decision framework and be familiar with some decision models in this quick and challenging course.
The focus will be on data-analytic and microeconomic approaches to decision making, with as little use of formulas as practicable. Rather, grasping of broad concepts, extension of intuition and, where appropriate, use of information technology to arrive at decisions, will be emphasized.
Extensive use will be made of Microsoft Excel skills in illustrating how to distil intelligence for decisions making. A very quick introduction to Excel will be conducted during the first two classes. It will be desirable to bring a fully charged notebook computer to class.
The module emphasizes the assimilation of decision-making concepts, their applications in management as well as their limitations. Students will gain exposure to decision and risk analyses, financial modelling, linear and nonlinear optimization tools, effective extraction and communication of information from data, deductive inference, margins of error, hypotheses testing, multi-linear regression, forecast modelling, and elementary machine learning.
Pre-configured Microsoft Excel spreadsheets will be promoted as practical analytical tools. A major component will be the persuasive and captivating presentation of analytical results by students.
Prerequisites
None. Familiarity with Microsoft Excel will help.
Syllabus
Syllabus
Weekly Schedule (tentative)
1 Overview, Administration & Microsoft Excel
2 Optimal Resource Allocations: Mathematical Programming
3 Dealing with Chance Events: Probability and Distributions
4 Sampling and Testing: Data-Analytic Decision Framework
5 Decision Tree
6 Choice Under Uncertainty
7 Comparing Averages
8 Causes and Effect
9 Forecasting
10 Game Theory
11 Elementary Machine Learning
Assessment
Assessment
3 Individual Assignments - 45%
Group Practical Case Studies - 10%
Participation - 15%
Group Project Proposal - 0% (7th class)
Group Project Write-up - 15% (12th class)
Group Project Presentation - 15% (13th class)
Group Practical Case Studies also provide peer-teaching opportunities during class, as complex cases must be clearly presented to classmates.
A group can use up to 15 minutes for case study presentation, followed by extra time for questions and answers. There can be multiple presenters for a case. Over two separate case study presentations, everyone in a group must present at least once, e.g., no one can just operate the computer throughout the two cases.
Before a presentation starts, someone from outside the group will be randomly selected to summarize the case issues in his/her own words, so everyone must come prepared.
Assessment for participation will include a student’s attitude, behaviour & etiquette, attendance record, punctuality, and participation in any activities in online chatroom & discussion forum.
Practical Work
Practical Work
Individual assignments, with write-ups not exceeding 3 concise pages in A4 format.
Student groups are to work on a real-life project, to present the findings verbally and to submit the completed work at the end of the module.
The project is carried out in groups of not more than 4 students. The write-up should not exceed 5 concise pages in A4 format.